Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 0.136438 0.149921 0.163689 0.178769 0.194797 0.211294 0.229531
2024-12-22 0.110021 0.129867 0.151112 0.175420 0.202340 0.231122 0.264099
2024-12-29 0.096544 0.121240 0.148755 0.181381 0.218712 0.259804 0.308162
2025-01-05 0.085407 0.113471 0.145875 0.185507 0.232121 0.284678 0.347875
2025-01-12 0.075869 0.106243 0.142487 0.188057 0.242960 0.306147 0.383515
2025-01-19 0.067295 0.099130 0.138319 0.188869 0.251111 0.324064 0.414817
2025-01-26 0.065362 0.100055 0.143768 0.201221 0.273082 0.358407 0.465738
2025-02-02 0.059697 0.095482 0.141772 0.203889 0.282922 0.378080 0.499205
2025-02-09 0.055296 0.092153 0.141001 0.207798 0.294094 0.399281 0.534564
2025-02-16 0.049931 0.086974 0.137355 0.207613 0.299814 0.413613 0.561500
2025-02-23 0.048731 0.087607 0.141453 0.217573 0.318549 0.444238 0.608726
2025-03-02 0.047566 0.088141 0.145318 0.227189 0.336882 0.474490 0.655732
2025-03-09 0.043316 0.083899 0.142538 0.228042 0.344225 0.491571 0.687367
2025-03-16 0.037943 0.077478 0.136309 0.223915 0.344867 0.500149 0.708540
2025-03-23 0.036147 0.076612 0.138073 0.230916 0.360488 0.528200 0.754749
2025-03-30 0.033941 0.074864 0.138380 0.235774 0.373213 0.552599 0.796536
2025-04-06 0.031478 0.072442 0.137486 0.238778 0.383351 0.573655 0.834178
2025-04-13 0.028770 0.069325 0.135303 0.239733 0.390554 0.590822 0.866875
2025-04-20 0.029261 0.071990 0.142267 0.254304 0.416954 0.633753 0.933483
2025-04-27 0.027300 0.069958 0.141616 0.257445 0.427265 0.655258 0.972241
2025-05-04 0.025785 0.068620 0.141979 0.262046 0.439638 0.679600 1.014882
2025-05-11 0.023486 0.065529 0.139277 0.261827 0.445033 0.694487 1.045102
2025-05-18 0.023494 0.067036 0.144274 0.273531 0.467710 0.733034 1.106959